Atlanta Group: Predicting Future Presidential Elections from Past Ones
Ralph Cannizzaro, Frances Rackow, Penny Shelton,and J. Lee Lehman, Ph.D.[1]
Copyright 2000 J. Lee Lehman
There are two possible ways to predict the outcome of a political election: either using mundane charts (such as Ingresses, election day charts, prior lunations), or by comparative natal methods. Lee published some mundane studies in a previous article,[2] and in another article she reported some possible methods comparing natal charts: the actual, instead of the theoretical results for successful candidates.[3] One of the simplest ways to study political elections from a natal perspective is to study presidents’ nativities at the time of their successful elections, compared to the nativity of the unsuccessful candidate. We have restricted this study to presidents and candidates whose data meets the Rodden AA-B criteria.[4] These strictures result in a total of sixteen elections which we can study. These are shown in Table 1.
Table One. Candidate pairs where both candidates have B data or better.
| Year | Candidates. The candidate with an asterisk (*) won. | Date Inaugurated |
| 1864 | George B. McClellan (AA) vs Abraham Lincoln* (B) | 3/4/1861 |
| 1896 | William Jennings Bryan (B) vs William McKinley* (A) | 3/4/1897 |
| 1900 | William Jennings Bryan (B) vs William McKinley* (A) | 3/4/1901 |
| 1908 | William Jennings Bryan (B) vs William H Taft* (A) | 3/4/1909 |
| 1912 | Theodore Roosevelt (B) vs Woodrow Wilson* (B) | 3/4/1913 |
| 1916 | Charles Evans Hughes (A) Woodrow Wilson* (B) | 3/4/1917 |
| 1936 | Alf Landon (A) vs Franklin Roosevelt* (AA) | 1/20/1937 |
| 1940 | Wendell Wilkie (A) vs Franklin Roosevelt* (AA) | 1/20/1941 |
| 1960 | Richard Nixon (AA) vs John F. Kennedy* (A) | 1/20/1961 |
| 1972 | George McGovern (A) vs Richard M. Nixon* (AA) | 1/20/1973 |
| 1976 | Gerald Ford (AA) vs James E. Carter* (AA) | 1/20/1977 |
| 1980 | James E. Carter (AA) vs Ronald Reagan*(B) | 1/20/1981 |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan*(B) vs Walter F. Mondale (AA) | 1/20/1985 |
| 1988 | Michael Dukakis (AA) vs George Bush* (A) | 1/20/1989 |
| 1992 | George Bush (A) vs William Clinton* (A) | 1/20/1993 |
| 1996 | Robert Dole (A) vs William Clinton* (A) | 1/20/1997 |
In class, Lee put forward the following challenge: pick your favorite astrological technique, and see if you can get quantitative results that predict the outcome. This article gives some of these results.
Penny picked profections. Profections are a classical technique in which the Ascendant is moved one house for each year of life. Accordingly: the 1st House gives the first year of life, the 2nd House the 2nd (age one), etc. A chart may be drawn with the profected Ascendant as the 1st House cusp, and the twelve houses interpreted accordingly. Because of the importance of angularity, Penny looked at the Profected 1st and its respective Natal House, the Profected 10th and its respective Natal House, and the Profected Election (based upon November date) from the Profected 1st. House. Then we will look for any combinations which repeat with emphasis on the natal 10th. These results are shown in Table 2.
Table Two. Profections of Presidential Elections – Winners and Losers. Asterisk (*) denotes the predicted winner.
Election of 1864 |
| * Abe Lincoln – Winner |
| P-1st House in the Natal 8th house. P-10th is the Natal 5th @ 26 Gemini and Mercury is 10Pisces in P-6/N1. P-election is N 4th @7 Gemini and Mercury is 10 Pisces in P6/N1. There is a connection between the Profected 10 and the Profected Election both ruled by Mercury in the natives Natal 1st house. Special note to the Profected 1st house is the Natal 8th house and Lincoln died in office |
| George McClellan – Losing Party |
| P-1st House is the Natal 2nd house @12 Libra and Venus is 9 Cap. Conj. Neptune. P-10th House is the Natal 11th @ 23 Cancer and Moon 2 Aqu in the P-4 house. P-Election is the Natal 1st @ 18 Virgo and Mercury is 0Cap in the P3/N4. There is not a connection between any Profected house or ruler. |
Election of 1896 |
| * William McKinley – Winner |
| P-1st is Natal 6th. P-10th is Natal 3rd @ 21 Sag is Jupiter is 5 Aqu in P11/N4. P-Electional is Natal 3rd @ 21 Sag. There is a connection between the Profected 10 and the Profected Election and Jupiter makes is conj the Moon and Sun. Mars also rules the Profected 1sth house and is in rulership sextile to Saturn in the Profected 10th house also the Profected Election House |
| William Jennings Bryan – Losing Party |
| P-1st is the Natal 1st @6 Gemini and Mercury is 16 Aries is in the P-11/N11. P-10 is 13 Aqu and Saturn is 20 Leo in the Natal 4th. P-Election is the Natal 8th house. There is no connection between ruler or houses and the P-Election in the Natal 8th. |
Election of 1900 |
| * William McKinley – Winner |
| P-1 is the Natal 10th House @ 29 Cancer and Moon is 6 Aqu. P-10 is the Natal 7th. P-Election is also the Natal 7th @ 25 Aries & Mars is 18 Scorpio. The P-1 Moon ruler is conj Jupiter and Sun in the P-7/N4th. McKinley died in Office in the P-1 is 29 degrees. |
| William Jennings Bryan – Losing Party |
| P-1st is the Natal 5th @ 11Virgo and Mercury is 16 Aries in P7/N11. P-10th is Natal 2nd @3 Cancer and Moon is 27 Aqu is P6/N7&8. P-Election is the P-8th and Natal 12th. This is again a losing profection. Also P-8th is 24 Aries and Mars is applying to the Natal 8th house. |
Election of 1908 |
| * William Taft – Winner |
| The P-1 ruler and the P-10th rulers is in the house of the P- Election. P-1 is N4th @23 Cancer and Moon is 27 Leo in the P2/N5. P-10 is N1st @ 9 Tarsus and Venus is 14 Leo in the P2/N5. P-Elections the P2 /N5th. |
| William Jennings Bryan – Losing Party |
| P-1 is the N1st. P-10 is the N10th. P-Election is the P8/N8 – becoming a signature of the losing party. |
Election of 1912 |
| * Woodrow Wilson – Winner |
| P-1 is N-10th @ 17 Cancer and Moon is 0Aqu in P-7/N4. P-10 is N-7th @15 Aries & Mars is 17 Aqu in the P-7/N4. P-Election is the P10th and the Natal 7th. Connection again between P1, P10 and the P11 and the Natal 10th house. |
| Theodore Roosevelt – Losing Party |
| P-1 is the N7th @ 24 Sag and Jupiter is 21 Gemini in the P6/N1 – this would also be the profected part of death. P10 is the N4th @0Virgo and Mercury is 2 Scorpio, Combust in the P11/N5th. P-Elections the Natal 1st. There is no connection between any house of planet. |
Election of 1916 |
| * Woodrow Wilson – Winner |
| P1 is the N12th @ 20 Virgo and Mercury is 18 Cap. P10 is N9th @11 Gemini and Mercury is 18 Cap. P-Election is the Natal 10th. Definite connections between profected houses and natal 10th. |
| Charles Evans Hughes – Losing Party |
| P1 is N7th @ 26 Taurus, conj Algol, Venus is 8 Pisces. P10 is N4th @ 11 Pisces and Venus is 8 Pisces. P Election is N1st @ 25 Scorpio and Mars is 5 Aqu. Again there is no connection between houses. |
Election of 1936 |
* Franklin Roosevelt – Winner |
| P1 is N7th @ 23 Pisces and Jupiter is 16 Taurus in the P3/N9. P10 is N4th @ 22 Sag and Jupiter is 16 Taurus is the P3/N9. P-Election is N4 @ 22 Sag and Jupiter is 16 Taurus is the P3/N9. Connections between all houses |
| Alf Landon – Losing Party |
| P1 is N2nd @ 24 Sag and Jupiter is 3 Scorpio square Saturn. P10 is N11 @ 11 Libra and Venus is 4 Libra conj Uranus. P-Election is N2 @1 Aqu and Saturn is 2 Leo conj Mars. In the P8th house. Again the 8th house connection at time of Election and no other winning connections. |
Election of 1940 |
| * Franklin Roosevelt – Winner |
| P1 is N10th @ 22 Gemini and Mercury’s 27 Aqu P9/N6. P10 is N7th @ 23 Pisces and Jupiter is 16 Taurus P12/N9. P-Election is N7 @23 Pisces. Again Connection between profected houses and natal 10th. |
| Wendell Wilkie – Losing Party |
| P1 is N1 @26 Virgo and Saturn is 28 Virgo P8/N8. P10 is N10 @19 Scorpio and Mars is 15 Sag in 11. P-Election is N9 @ 22 Libra and Venus is 5 Aries in the P2/N2. Connection between P1 and natal 8th for losing without any additional connection between houses to support a win. |
Election of 1960 |
| John F. Kennedy – Winner |
| P1 is N8th @ 14 Taurus and Venus is 16 Gemini. P10 is N5th @ 28 Aqu and Saturn is 27 Cancer in P3/N10. P – Election is P6 or N1 and Venus is 16 Gemini in the P2/N9. Venus squares Moon (ruler of natal 10th). Many connections with the 8th house and he did die in office. |
| Richard Nixon – Losing Party |
| P1 is N12th @8 Leo and Sun is 19 Cap oppose Neptune in the P12th. P10 is N9 @11 Taurus and Venus is 3 Pisces P7/N6. P- Election is N9 – Saturn is Rx in the 9th house. This one may have been tougher to call. As both have connections but Nixon’s are somewhat weaker. |
Election of 1972 |
| Richard Nixon – Winner |
| P1 is N12 @ 21 Leo and Sun is 19 Cap in the P6/N5th. P10 is N9@ 11 Taurus and Venus is 3 Pisces P7/N6. P-Election is P10/N9. It is interesting that the two times Nixon ran for President were both P12 house years. One he lost and one he won and why did he win the 2nd time and not the first –see McGovern’s chart. |
| George McGovern |
| P1 is N3 @ 9 Leo and Sun is 25 Cancer in the P12/N2. P10 is N12 @ 20 Taurus and Venus is 4 Virgo in P2/N4. P-Election is P4/N6 @20 Scorpio and Mars 11 Sag in the P4/N6. McGovern does not have connections between houses. |
Election of 1976 |
| * James Earl Carter – Winner |
| P1 is N5th @ 2 Pisces and Jupiter is 14 Sag in P10/N2. P10 is N2nd @ 22 Scorpio and Mars is 25 Aqu is P12/N4. P-Election is N6 @ 0Aries and Mars is 25 Aqu is P12/N4. |
| Gerald Ford – Losing Party |
| P1is N4 @24 Cancer and Moon is 3Sag in P4/N7. P10 is N1st @13 Taurus and Venus is 5Gemini in P10/N1. P-Election is N7 @13 Scorpio and Mars is 19 Taurus in P10/N1. Neptune conj P1/N4 and Moon opposes Venus in the P10. Carter chart is stronger with more connections. |
Election of 1980 |
* Ronald Reagan – Winner |
| P1 is N10th @21 Libra and Venus is 3 Pisces in P5/N2. P10 is N7th @27 Gemini and Merc is 21 Cap in P4/N1. P- Election is P9 and N6 @4 Gemini and Merc is 21 Cap in P4/N1 conj Uranus. |
| Jimmy Carter – Losing Party |
| P1 is N9 @23 Gemini and Mercury is 21 Virgo P3/N11. P10 is N6 @0 Aries and Mars is 25 Aqu in the P8/N4 (losing indicator). P-Elections N10 @28 Cancer and Moon 13 Scorpio in P5/N1. The connections again between the P8 seems to be strong for losing. |
Election of 1984 |
| * Ronald Reagan – Winner |
| P1 is N2 @1 Aqu and Saturn is 0 Taurus in P3/N4. P10 is N11 @14 Scorpio and Mars is 3 Cap in P12/N1. Pefect is P10 in N11 at 14 Scorpio. Connection between P10 and P- Election. |
| Walter Mondale – Losing Party |
| P1 is N9 @29 Scorpio and Mars is 20 Sag in P2/N10. P10 is N6 @ 26 Cancer and Moon is in the P8/N4 – Signature of Losing Party. P Election is P11 & N7 @ 6Virgo and Mercury is P3/N11 and Combust. |
Election of 1988 |
| * George Bush – Winner |
| P1 is N5 @28 Cap and Saturn is 25 Libra in P12/N2. P10 is N2 @16 Libra and Venus is 17 Cancer in P6/N10. P-Election is N9 @15 Taurus and Venus is 17 Cancer in P6/N10 conj. Pluto. |
| Michael Dukakis – Losing Party |
| P1 is N8@ 3 Cap and Saturn is 10Aqu in P2/N10 (8th house is signature of Losing Party). P10 in N6 @8 Virgo and Mercury is 3 Sag in P12/N7. P -Elections N8 again signature of Losing Party. |
Election of 1992 |
| * Bill Clinton – Winner |
| P1 is N11 @10 Leo and Sun is 26 Leo in rulership. P10 is N8 @1 Taurus and Venus is 11 Libra, in rulership at P3/N1. P-Election is N1@5Libra and Venus is 11 Libra in rulership at P3/N1. Clinton has all planets in rulership in spite of the 8th house connection. |
| George Bush – Losing Party |
| P1 is N8 @16 Aries and Mars is 25 Aqu (weaker than Clinton). P10 is N5 @ 28 Cap. And Saturn is 25 Libra in P7/N2. P Election is P5 and N12 @28 Leo and Sun is 21 Gemini. 8th house connection with planets in weaker dignity than Clinton. |
Election of 1996 |
| * Bill Clinton – Winner |
| P1 is N3 @1 Sag and Jupiter is 23 Libra in P11/N1. P10 is N12 @9 Virgo and Mercury is 7 Leo in P9/N11. P-Election is N5 @10 Aqu and Saturn is 2 Leo in P8/N10. |
| Robert Dole – Losing Party |
| P1 is N2 @10 Gemini and Mercury is 28 Cancer in P3/N4. P10 is N11 @13 Aqu and Saturn is 14 Libra in P5/N6. P-Election is N6 @18Virgo and Mercury is 28 Cancer in P3/N4. Mercury is Combust. Having the Ruler of the Election combust has also proven to be a signature for the losing party. This Election would also have been somewhat difficult to forecast. |
Election of 2000 |
| George W. Bush – forecast as Losing Party |
| P1 is N7 @7 Aqu and Saturn is 26 Cancer in P6/N12. P10 is N4 @24 Libra and Venus is 21 Leo in P7/N1 conj. Pluto. P-Election is P5 and is N11 @ 0 Gemini and Mercury is 9 Leo separating from Pluto in P7/N1. |
| Al Gore – forecast as Winner |
| P1 is N5 @0 Sag and Jupiter is 28 Sag in rulership conj Moon in P1/N5. P10 is N2 @ 26 Leo and Sun is 10 Aries in P5/N9. P-Election is P8 and N12 @4 Cancer and Moon 3 Cap. |
Of the sixteen elections, two were too close to call, and the others worked according to this model. As far as 2000 is concerned, Gore’s chart has greater dignity. Neither Bush nor Gore has connections between houses. We have seen the P1 house in dignity as the winner in the past. Al Gore does have an 8th house connection this may indicate a death in office. Bush does not have any contacts for winning. This is only slight favor for Gore.
Fran picked solar arcs. Her results are shown in Table 3.
The examples do not give enough results to determine whether the Nodes or Fortuna should count in the weighting, in each case the winner had more angular planets where the system worked. In every case where the system did not work, Mars was angular for the losing candidate.
If we consider that this is a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction year which is the “Presidential Death Cycle” Fran is concerned for Gore because his SA Moon is only 2 degrees from the 8th house and his SA Uranus is less than a degree from the natal Saturn/Pluto midpoint in the 1st house. (Sat/Plu is a death axis in Cosmobiology.)
Fran noted the Aries Point, or any SA planet directed to zero degrees of a cardinal sign because this point is associated with being in the public eye or achieving prominence according to Cosmobiology.
Ralph’s model was so simple, it didn’t require a table to explain. He looked at the progressed 10th, its ruler and the dignity/debility of the ruler, and the number of planets on the progressed angles.
Looking at outer planets in the 10th, with Saturn there the nominee had 1 win and 4 losses; Neptune there had 2 wins and 1 loss; Uranus 0 wins and 2 losses; Pluto 2 wins and 2 losses; Jupiter did not appear there. Overall, 5 wins and 9 losses.
Second, the nominee with the higher score for dignity/debility of the progressed 10th ruler had 6 wins and 4 losses(60%); there were 5 draws.
Third, the nominee with the most number of planets, including the luminaries, had 7 wins and 5 losses(58%); there were 2 draws.
So far nothing was exciting.
However, then he noticed the Vertex was an extraordinary indicator. The closer the Vertex to the Midheaven, the greater the chance of winning. The closer to the Descendant (the Portals of Death?), the greater the chance of losing.
Asking one question, ” Whose progressed Vertex is closest to the Midheaven?” results in 14 wins and 0 losses!
While both Bush and Gore are a poor sample in that neither has his Vertex anywhere near the mc, with both in the 7th, a bad place to be, Gore’s is 6 degrees closer to the Midheaven. Hence, Gore wins.
Here we see three completely different methods, all producing interesting looking results from a historical standpoint, and all predicting the same outcome this year: Gore by a small margin. Do the methods work predictively? We shall see!
[1] Also known as Lee’s Atlanta Classical Studies Group. Ralph has completed Classical Studies in Electional, Mundane and Gaming; Frances has completed Classical Studies in Horary; Penny has completed Classical Studies in Horary, Natal, Electional, Mundane and Gaming.
[2] J. Lee Lehman. 1998. Presidential Elections as Warfare. Horary Practitioner 9: 47-51.
[3] J. Lee Lehman. 2000. US Presidential Elections: The Use of Past Elections to Predict Future Outcomes. Astrological Journal 42(5): 6-15.
[4] Thanks to Lois Rodden and Mark McDonough for the work which has culminated in the AstroDataBank ®. All the data here is from the ADB, except for Ronald Reagan’s data, which was reported on their web site (http://www.astrodatabank.com/) as finally achieving B status. Full descriptions of the Rodden Ratings are also available on the site.
| SA= Solar Arc | Worked? | ||||
| 1864 Abraham Lincoln v. George B. McClellan | Lincoln had SA Jupiter conjunct natal Moon in his first house, while McClellan had Mars conjunct the 7th cusp. | Tie. Jupiter beat Mars | |||
| 1896 William Jennings Bryan v. William McKinley | Bryan lost with only Solar Arc Jupiter in the 4th, McKinley had SA Mercury 3 degrees from the Descendant, but also at the Pluto/Desc midpoint, and SA Venus in the 4th | Yes. Counting Mercury as angular | |||
| 1900 William Jennings Bryan v. William McKinley | The same pair, this time Bryan’s SA Sun was in the 12th! By now, McKinley’s SA Mercury was to the 7th house cusp, SA Fortuna conjunct natal Venus, and SA Venus is still in the 4th. Nothing of Bryan had become angular. | yes | |||
| 1908 William Taft v. William Jennings Bryan | By election number 3, Bryan’s Mars was in the 10th, and Mercury was conjunct Uranus just 2 degrees from his ASC. Taft had Solar Arc Sun in the 7th, Solar Arc Neptune and North Node in the 1st House. His SA Asc was at zero Cancer, the “Aries Point” and SA Fortuna was in the 4th. | 2 planets each-tie. Mars doesn’t help! | |||
| 1912 Woodrow Wilson v. Theodore Roosevelt | Roosevelt had a lot of angularity: SA Sun, Mercury, Moon Mars and Pluto. Wilson had SA Uranus just one degree past his MC and Pluto at the Aries Point Square Natal Jupiter. | No. Mars angular harms again. | |||
| 1916 Woodrow Wilson v. Charles Evans Hughes | Hughes had SA Mars in the 4th, with Neptune 1 degree applying to the 7th. Wilson had Solar Arc Venus 2 degrees into the 7th house, Uranus still in the 10th, and SA Moon at the Aries Point. | Tie. Venus beat Mars | |||
| 1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt v. Alf Landon | Landon had SA Saturn and Mars in the 10th, SA Uranus in the 1st. Roosevelt had SA Sun and Venus in the 7th, SA Fortuna on the MC, and SA Pluto, Jupiter, Neptune and Saturn all in the 10th. | yes | |||
| 1940 Franklin D Roosevelt v. Wendell Wilkie | Wilkie had SA Mars in the 1st, SA Venus conjunct Fortuna in the 4th, SA Pluto one degree from the 7th. FDR had SA Fortuna conjunct natal Mars in the 10th, plus SA Saturn, Neptune, Jupiter and Pluto were still in the 10th. | yes | |||
| 1960 John F. Kennedy v. Richard Nixon | Nixon had SA Uranus in the 7th, and SA Saturn in the 10th. JFK had Solar Arc Venus and Pluto in the 10th, No. Node and Uranus in the 4th, SA Moon in the 1st | yes | |||
| 1972 Richard Nixon v. George McGovern | McGovern had SA Moon in the 1st, SA Sun in the 4th. Nixon had SA Neptune in the 1st, SA Sun in the 7th, and Uranus in the 7th. | yes, Nixon had one more angular planet. | |||
| 1976 Jimmy Carter v. Gerald Ford | Ford had SA Moon in the 10th, SA Venus and Saturn in the 4th (Saturn really in orb of the 5th.) Carter had SA Mercury conjunct natal Moon in the first, SA Jupiter in the 4th, and SA Uranus in the 7th. | yes | |||
| 1980 Ronald Reagan v. Jimmy Carter | Carter still had SA Jupiter in the 4th, SA Mercury in the 1st, Uranus in the 7th. Reagan’s SA MC was at the Aries point, in the 1st. SA Sun was in the 4th, Saturn, Moon, NN 7th. Jupiter was in the 1st at the midpoint of natal 1st house Mercury/Uranus. | yes | |||
| 1984 Ronald Reagan v. Walter Mondale | Mondale had Mercury in the 1st and Pluto in the 7th. Reagan still had 5 angular planets, plus the Nodes and SA MC. | yes | |||
| 1988 George Bush v. Michael Dukakis | Dukakis had SA Jupiter in the 7th, Mars and Venus in the 10th, Uranus in the 1st, and Pluto in the 4th. George Bush had SA Moon at 20 Sag, Fortuna at 21 Sag and natal IC at 21 Sag. | No. (Mars was angular for Dukakis) | |||
| 1992 Bill Clinton v. George Bush | Bush had SA Venus conjunct the natal Asc. Bill Clinton had SA Moon conjunct the MC, Uranus and No. Node in the 10th, SA Sun in the 1st conjunct natal Venus. | yes | |||
| 1996 Bill Clinton v. Robert Dole | Dole had the SA Asc conjunct the natal IC, SA Jupiter in the 7th. Clinton had SA Sun in the 1st, Moon in the 10th, No. Node in the 10th conjunct natal Mercury. | Yes | |||
| 2000 Al Gore v. George W Bush | Gore has SA Uranus in the 1st – so does Bush. Gore also has SA Jupiter in the 7th, and Moon, although the Moon is only 2 degrees from the 8th house cusp. Bush has SA N Node in the 1st, SA Mars in the 4th, and SA Neptune in the 4th. So, Gore has two planets that count as angular, Bush has three. Most elections have not been this close! What makes matters less clear is that Bush has Mars as an angular planet which has never won in our sample. | ??? | |||
| Results of Initial Investigation | |||||
| Total Examples with results | 16 | 100% | |||
| Number where angular planets alone predicted outcome | 11 | 69% | |||
| Number where there was a tie between the candidates | 3 | 19% | |||
| Number where results were incorrect | 2 | 13% | |||
| Results if we conclude that Mars Angular indicates a loser: | |||||
| Total Examples with results | 16 | 100% | |||
| # where angular planets, plus Mars denotes Loser, correct | 16 | 100% | |||
| Number where there was a tie between the candidates | 0 | 0% | |||
| Number where results were incorrect | 0 | 0% | |||